Winter comes early in Ukraine, and the Kremlin knows it.
As the fighting grinds on, Ukrainians are bracing for winter under historically harsh conditions. Seven months of war have taken a toll on a nation that was Europe’s poorest even before Russia’s military belligerence damaged or destroyed thousands of residential buildings, schools, hospitals and community buildings.
In recent weeks, water systems and energy plants have been the focus of Russian missiles and exploding drones. The collapse of infrastructure has put millions of people at risk of losing access to electricity, water, even shelter, the International Rescue Committee warns.
Volodymyr Omelyan, the former Ukrainian infrastructure minister, estimates that 40% of the nation’s energy sector has been damaged or destroyed. Russia’s intent is obvious, he says – force the populace to suffer. Weaken their resolution.
“But Ukraine is too big to fall,” Omelyan told USA TODAY. “And Ukrainians understand that if we surrender we will be destroyed.”
So rolling blackouts have become a way of life in areas that have no power at all. And President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns that Russia will do everything it can to break the resistance of Ukraine this winter – “another kind of Russian terrorist attacks, targeting energy & critical infrastructure,” Zelenskyy tweeted.
“This will be the most difficult winter in the whole world,” Zelenskyy said. “These will be 90 days that will be a test for our faith in victory. A test for our endurance and unity, for our ability to protect ourselves, the whole world.”
Ukrainian parliament member and Golos party leader Kira Rudik tweeted “just everyday life” photos of candles burning in an otherwise cold oven underneath pans of frying eggs. She said Ukrainians are growing accustomed to colder days with less sunlight but warned that “total darkness and cold are coming.”
Kyiv’s winters are a bit colder than Detroit but with less snow. The average high temperature in December, January and February is freezing.
Dale Buckner, a retired US Army colonel and CEO of the international security firm Global Guardian, says Russia has shifted tactics under the leadership of Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who introduced the concerted effort to disrupt Ukraine’s energy supply as the temperatures began to fall.
“We’re likely to see Russia continue to use the cold as a weapon against the Ukrainian people,” Buckner said.
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How Russia will use weather to wear down Ukrainians
Andriy Yermak, a member of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and top adviser to Zelenskyy, said the Russians can’t win on the battlefield, so they “resort to terror on a scale unseen since World War II.” The massive artillery barrages and missile attacks on critical infrastructure are crucial parts of Russian strategy and part of a two-fold calculation, he said.
“The first part is to make living conditions too harsh to survive in winter, to provoke another wave of migration.” he said. “The second part of the plan is to psychologically degrade Ukrainians to make us wish the war ended, no matter how.”
The United Nations has already confirmed more than 6,000 civilian deaths and almost 10,000 wounded since Feb. 24 invasion and says the true death toll is probably higher. Winter is likely to provide additional “challenges and opportunities” depending in part on its severity, said Jeffrey Levine, a former US ambassador to Estonia – also a former Soviet republic sharing a border with Russia.
Levine, a career foreign service officer who served multiple tours in Eastern Europe, acknowledged the energy standoff between the EU and Russia could threaten EU resolution and lead to economic and personal hardships.
“Putin is still trying to weaken EU solidarity and this could be a perfect opportunity to exploit,” he said.
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Steven Myers, a former member of the State Department Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy and founder of a defense consulting firm, says large scale military operations will grind to a halt because the boggy terrain won’t support rapid flexible movement of heavy equipment and troops. .
Myers said he expects “significant military escalation planning” from both sides. Skirmishes will continue, and Russia’s shift to a blitzkrieg-style, drone assault on civilian infrastructure will continue when weather conditions allow.
“Russia will train, reinforce and add more weapons to the mix, and most importantly try to improve morale,” Myers said. “They’ll develop new strategies and tactics for their next series of offenses. Ukraine will do the same.”
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How winter can be an advantage for Ukraine
Sen. Lindsey Graham is an Air Force veteran and firm supporter of Zelenskyy and Ukraine. Freedom historically requires hard winters, he told USA TODAY, referencing George Washington at Valley Forge and even the Russian people themselves, pushing back the invading Nazis during World War II.
“A hard winter awaits Europe, and it will be tough back here at home for a while,” the South Carolina Republican said. “But better days are ahead if Putin is defeated in Ukraine, if the instability he has brought to the end of the world.”
The US has taken some practical steps to help the Ukrainian military prepare for winter. The US committed 50,000 parkas, 4,700 trousers, 39,000 fleece hats, 23,000 pairs of boots, 18,000 pairs of gloves and 6,000 tents. Several other countries also pledged cold weather gear at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group hosted by Secretary Austin on Oct. 12.
With Russia’s struggles to maintain supply lines, a harsh winter would make it even more difficult for the Kremlin to keep its troops fed and equipped – making it less difficult for Ukraine to continue its offensive.
“Clearly Russia is experiencing some significant logistics and sustainment challenges right now,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, told reporters recently. “Those are only going to get harder as the winter months set in, and so time is certainly of the essence when it comes to capitalizing on that.”
Buckner, whose firm has helped thousands of Ukrainians flee the country, says Ukrainians know that the winter will be challenging, but they also know how to survive in adverse conditions and will be prepared. Ukrainians, he said, are more concerned that Putin could successfully stop Western Europe’s support of Ukraine by cutting their oil and gas entirely in the coming winter.
“The ‘home team’ of Ukraine has the tactical advantage as their supply chains are much shorter, with less risk of disruption and logistical support,” Buckner said.
Buckner added that there is little hope of a resolution to the war this winter. Russia seeks to “freeze” the conflict as it mobilizes more forces, he says, and with entrenched and mutually exclusive political goals on each side “this won’t be resolved under the current leadership.”
Leadership change in Washington could also have a major impact. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, citing domestic priorities, said last week that Ukraine will see no “blank check” from the US Congress if the GOP takes control in the November elections. McCarthy has the inside track on becoming House speaker if the Republicans claim the majority.
Republican leadership in the Senate could provide more support for Zelenskyy, however.
“The Biden administration and our allies need to do more to supply the tools Ukraine needs to thwart Russian aggression,” McConnell said in a statement Friday. “It is obvious that this must include additional air defenses, long-range fires and humanitarian and economic support to help this war-torn country endure the coming winter.”
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What the US can do in the coming months
Levine says that to ease the pressure on Ukraine this winter, the US must do “exactly what they have been doing.” It is essential that the US continues the flow of high accuracy, advanced weaponry to the Ukrainian forces while maintaining sanctions – and adding to them at every opportunity, he said.
“The military embarrassment Putin has suffered along with the continued disruptions faced by the Russian population all weaken Putin’s narrative, increasing his vulnerability and threatening his legacy,” Levine said. “His legacy is of critical importance to Putin. He has to be thinking of face-saving ways out.”
Buckner agrees that the US should continue to prop up the Ukrainians militarily and financially ‘while quietly making it very clear to the Russians what will happen should the conflict go nuclear or expand beyond Ukraine’s borders.’
Myers offers a different view on the US role. He warns that Western aid is “enabling and promoting escalation” of the war. And Russia is responding in kind, he said.
“At the end of the day, Ukraine faces utter destruction under the increasing and relentless conflict,” Myers said. “Ukraine is suffering more losses than the US was at the height of the Vietnam war. Five hundred-plus killed a week should raise a lot of eyebrows. No one seems to notice.”
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Is there an end in sight to the conflict?
White House National Security Council coordinator John Kirby has consistently repeated the refrain of the Biden administration that it wants to see a negotiated settlement. Kirby stresses, however, that Ukraine needs to negotiate from a position of military strength. The aggressive behavior of Russia’s military has fouled the atmosphere for talks, and Ukraine has refused to sit down with the Russians.
“There is zero chance that Putin will capitulate,” Myers says. “The fighting won’t stop until the belligerents are tired, there is a change of political will in Washington from both the left and the right, everyone becomes terrified enough, or someone displays some statecraft.”
Omelyan says that if the West continues to fully support Ukraine, the war will be won in 2023. A ceasefire would only help Russia, he said.
“Russia badly needs a break to regroup, to get support from China and then hit us again,” he said.
Graham said Russians will ultimately determine that they have no future with Putin and “will get rid of him one way or the other” as it becomes obvious he’s destroying their military and their country.
“It will not be the first time freedom-loving people had to suffer, and I like our position much better than Putin’s,” Graham said. “I would not take his hand over Ukraine’s hand.”
Buckner argues that Russia isn’t a self-confident imperial power seeking to expand; it’s an empire in its twilight days fighting for survival. Putin correctly assessed that his window of opportunity – to prevent Ukraine falling into the Western camp and becoming an aggrieved and formidable military force – would close soon, Buckner said.
The war will continue as a protracted conflict as long as NATO and the West continue to arm and train the Ukrainians, Buckner says: “This war will end when Russia collapses, after large swaths of its male population come home from Ukraine disillusioned and with little hope for the future.”
Contributing: Tom Vanden Brook and Francesca Chambers, USA TODAY
